In statistical computations, intuition can be very misleading
Guess Again
Even hardened scientists can make mistakes when interpreting statistics. Mathematical experiments can give you the right ideas to prevent this from happening, and quick simulations in Perl nicely illustrate and support the learning process.
If you hand somebody a die in a game of Ludo [1], and they throw a one on each of their first three turns, they are likely to become suspicious and check the sides of the die. That's just relying on intuition – but when can you scientifically demonstrate that the dice are loaded (Figure 1)? After five throws that all come up as ones? After ten throws?
Figure 1: These dice, purchased in Las Vegas, always come up with winning combinations.
Each experiment with dice is a game of probabilities. What exactly happens is a product of chance. It is not so much the results of a single throw that are relevant, but the tendency. A player could throw a one, three times in succession from pure bad luck. Although the odds are pretty low, it still happens, and you would be ill advised to jump to conclusions about the dice based on such a small number of attempts.
[...]
Buy this article as PDF
(incl. VAT)
Buy Linux Magazine
US / Canada
UK / Australia
Subscribe to our Linux Newsletters
Find Linux and Open Source Jobs
Subscribe to our ADMIN Newsletters
Support Our Work
Linux Magazine content is made possible with support from readers like you. Please consider contributing when you’ve found an article to be beneficial.
News
-
Cairo Dock 3.6 Now Available for More Compositors
If you're a fan of third-party desktop docks, then the latest release of Cairo Dock with Wayland support is for you.
-
System76 Unleashes Pop!_OS 24.04 Beta
System76's first beta of Pop!_OS 24.04 is an impressive feat.
-
Linux Kernel 6.17 is Available
Linus Torvalds has announced that the latest kernel has been released with plenty of core improvements and even more hardware support.
-
Kali Linux 2025.3 Released with New Hacking Tools
If you're a Kali Linux fan, you'll be glad to know that the third release of this famous pen-testing distribution is now available with updates for key components.
-
Zorin OS 18 Beta Available for Testing
The latest release from the team behind Zorin OS is ready for public testing, and it includes plenty of improvements to make it more powerful, user-friendly, and productive.
-
Fedora Linux 43 Beta Now Available for Testing
Fedora Linux 43 Beta ships with Gnome 49 and KDE Plasma 6.4 (and other goodies).
-
USB4 Maintainer Leaves Intel
Michael Jamet, one of the primary maintainers of USB4 and Thunderbolt drivers, has left Intel, leaving a gaping hole for the Linux community to deal with.
-
Budgie 10.9.3 Now Available
The latest version of this elegant and configurable Linux desktop aligns with changes in Gnome 49.
-
KDE Linux Alpha Available for Daring Users
It's official, KDE Linux has arrived, but it's not quite ready for prime time.
-
AMD Initiates Graphics Driver Updates for Linux Kernel 6.18
This new AMD update focuses on power management, display handling, and hardware support for Radeon GPUs.